Toma Partners Broker Ben Toma recently attended the The Crosby Team’s Agent Appreciation Event which included a briefing by Prime Lending’s Scott Eggen. He presented some interesting data about the Arizona real estate market.
· Maricopa County MLS inventory is at the lowest level since April 2006
· Declining inventory is a leading indicator of appreciating home values, which is where we are right now in the cycle. Increased home values are a lagging indicator of a healthy housing market. In other words, if you wait to buy until you see an appreciating home market, the bottom of the market will be in your rearview mirror!
· Data suggests that we are migrating toward a multiple offer situation on existing home sales. I think you would agree we are already seeing this today!
· Days on market are dropping lower each month.
· Building permits are at an all-time low, but as the price of homes increase, builders will increase their production. Builders have been in survival-mode as buyers can buy an existing home for less than it cost to build.
· We may see an increase of bank owned inventory in the Spring of 2012 as banks begin to bring homes to market, now that the “robo signing” documents have been correctly filed and the foreclosures are legally compliant.
· Unemployment rates are dropping and giving Americans more confidence.
· If the current consumer sentiment trajectories continue, we could see a very confident consumer thru 2014. A confident and employed consumer is much more likely to consider a move up buy or other real estate purchases.
· The Federal Government’s program called “Operation Twist” will keep 30 year rates low through June 2013!
· The US Economy has it’s issues, but the US is the “best shirt in a pile of dirty laundry”!