Spring Trends in Phoenix Real Estate March 2012

Almost everything you read about the Phoenix real estate market is based on data that is 3-6 months old. Often, news reports reflect exactly the opposite of what is currently happening in the market.  For example, I read a lot of stories suggesting prices are declining.  Wrong! Prices are on the way up; they were falling 6 months ago.

  • Fact: We are currently in a sellers market, not a buyers market. You will likely be bidding against multiple buyers.
  • Fact: In LUXURY there is no question that VALUES ARE DROPPING across the board.  The lack of financing continues to make it difficult for buyers to secure luxury homes. Until this changes don’t expect values to increase.

As of this month, we suspect that under-$400,000 prices will level off in coming months after a short spike in values and that luxury homes will continue to fall through the end of the year and perhaps though the next.

The Raw Data on Phoenix Real Estate

We draw our data from the Cromford Report, the recognized source of single-family residential Phoenix Area. You can access it directly here- Click for direct access to raw data. We’ve put together a quick view for you below:


  • Annual Appreciation: 0.70%, 13.20%
  • Recent Appreciation Trend: 0.70%, 8.20%

Paradise Valley/Cave Creek/Fountain Hills

  • Annual Appreciation: -9.20%, -8.80%, -17.00%
  • Recent Appreciation Trend: -8.30%, 2.80%, -13.00%
  • Caution, data from smaller cities varies greatly because of the limited number of transactions.


  • Annual Appreciation: 6.8%, 7.6%, 6.2%
  • Recent Appreciation Trend: 6.9%, 6.9%, 4.5%

Overall Market Data (Data from Maricopa, Pinal and Yavapai County)

  • Annual Appreciation: 7.5% (Compared to value of March 2011)
  • Recent Appreciation Trend: 7.1% (Rate of Change)
  • Annual Sales: 9.2%
  • Active Listings: -41.5% (Change in Inventory Rate.)
  • Average Days On Market: 145 days
  • Months Of Supply: 3.2
  • Average Active Listing Price is $153.15/Sq.Ft. vs Sold Price of $91.58/Sq.Ft. (Price changes of 72.9% are normally made prior to the sale of the home.)

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About Mike Garland

In this age of software, data bases and cloud technology, residential real estate provides an anchor to physical reality. At least for now, there is no virtual reality where people can share a meal, a swim in the pool or laugh in the living room with a view of Camelback Mountain the way they can in a luxury home. I enjoy helping people find and sell homes in the Phoenix Valley. With my team we specialize in residential real estate in the Biltmore area, Paradise Valley and the West Valley. I also head up the Toma Partners relocation group.
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