Open up the champagne bottle!

Here’s a market update from Toma Partners CEO Mihai Toma:

Open up the champagne bottle! 

OPINION SEGMENT:  It is finally time to be optimistic about real estate.  That stated, institutional investors are starting to pull out of the Phoenix market because prices have gotten too high.  These investors are largely responsible for the recent rapid recovery in home values.  Given this fact, do not let the high appreciation numbers deceive you.  Expect appreciation to normalize in coming months.  If I were a betting man, I would wager that in the next 6 months appreciation will slow and settle between 6% and 9% per year.  The good news is that I do not see depreciation in the near future.

I was on NPR discussing this very topic with Robert Shiller, economist, from Yale University.  Click on the link below to listen, I begin speaking in the 6th minute of the segment.

Click here to listen to Mihai and Robert Shiller on NPR (National Public Radio) discussing the Phoenix market.

MARKET DATA:  Only Toma Partners gives you unfiltered access to Arizona real estate raw data, directly from the source. Click here to view THE RAW DATA

Paradise Valley/Cave Creek/Fountain Hills 

  • Annual Appreciation: 17.8%, 15.4%, 12.0%
  • Recent Appreciation Trend: 11.1%, 9.0%, 2.0%
  • Caution, data from smaller cities varies greatly because of the limited number of transactions.


  • Annual Appreciation: 16.7%, 33.1%
  • Recent Appreciation Trend: 4.5%, 15.3%


  • Annual Appreciation: 27.1%, 34.1%, 24.7%
  • Recent Appreciation Trend: 7.5%, 15.3%, 10.2%

Overall Market Data (Data from Maricopa, Pinal and Yavapai County)

  • Annual Appreciation: 28.0% (Compared to value of July 2011)
  • Recent Appreciation Trend: 10.1% (Rate of Change)
  • Annual Sales: -9.6%
  • Active Listings: -17.5% (Change in Inventory Rate.)
  • Average Days On Market: 117 days
  • Months Of Supply: 3.3

Click here to SEE MORE RAW DATA on all cities (Provided by Cromford Report)

Considering Short Sale instead of Foreclosure:
Short sales are significantly better for your long term credit, allowing you to purchase another home in 2 years or in some cases right away.  This is not the case after a foreclosure.  The term, short sale, means you are selling your home for less than what you owe.  The process usually takes 3 months.  Click here to take a SHORT QUIZ and see if you are a good candidate for a short sale.

Please feel free to reach out with your real estate needs and questions,



About Mike Garland

In this age of software, data bases and cloud technology, residential real estate provides an anchor to physical reality. At least for now, there is no virtual reality where people can share a meal, a swim in the pool or laugh in the living room with a view of Camelback Mountain the way they can in a luxury home. I enjoy helping people find and sell homes in the Phoenix Valley. With my team we specialize in residential real estate in the Biltmore area, Paradise Valley and the West Valley. I also head up the Toma Partners relocation group.
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