We’ve run the numbers again and this is what we’ve found:
OPINION SEGMENT: The recent inventory shortage and massive influx of investors have created a rapidly appreciating market. I’m projecting appreciation will slow from current rates to between 6-9% by the end of this year. However, if a negative macro-economic event occurs, such as the possible elimination of the mortgage tax deduction as part of a budget deal, negative appreciation is a possibility.
Will shadow inventory be a factor in coming years? In January of 2010 there were 6,239 foreclosures listed for sale and 6,744 unlisted foreclosures, the latter known as shadow inventory. Today there are 1,044 foreclosures and the shadow inventory, or unlisted foreclosures, is 2,886. Therefore, there is shadow inventory but the shadow inventory is not at a high enough level to make a significant impact on the market.
MARKET DATA: Only Toma Partners gives you unfiltered access to Arizona real estate raw data, directly from the source. Click here to view THE RAW DATA
Paradise Valley/Cave Creek/Fountain Hills
- Annual Appreciation: 2.3%, 24.9%, 14.9%
- Recent Appreciation Trend: -2.6%, 4.7%, 6.7%
- Caution, data from smaller cities varies greatly because of the limited number of transactions.
- Annual Appreciation: 20.3%, 34.4%
- Recent Appreciation Trend: 9.9%, 11.8%
- Annual Appreciation: 28.4%, 25.9%, 21.4%
- Recent Appreciation Trend: 7.7%, 8.3%, 8.1%
Overall Market Data (Data from Maricopa, Pinal and Yavapai County)
- Annual Appreciation: 27.7% (Compared to value of July 2011)
- Recent Appreciation Trend: 7.5% (Rate of Change)
- Annual Sales: -11.3%
- Active Listings: -13.4% (Change in Inventory Rate.)
- Average Days On Market: 122 days
- Months Of Supply: 3.6