Market Update from Toma Partners’ CEO Mihai Toma
Four months ago I predicted the market was on the way up when most other news outlets predicted otherwise. I hope the fact that I was correct increases the level of trust you have in my analysis.
Opinion Segment: As is my habit, I will break with the crowd of optimism to point something out. One third of all recent homes have been purchased by investors. Not only does this explain the insanity behind the market’s rapid trajectory towards recovery but this fact also has other implications.
- Positive Implications: Investors are the gas behind the rapid appreciation in home value, not jobs or marcoeconomic recovery. Investors always have money to place, which means we can expect demand to remain high.
- Negative Implications: Investors are pack animals. Like a heard of wildebeest in the African Savanna they all move in one direction but if spooked, they turn and run in the opposite direction just as fast.
If you are considering selling a home, now is the time! You could wait for prices to continue to rise but consider that the election, investor buying patterns and even troubles with the banking system in Europe could quickly turn appreciation into depreciation. Remember in late 2010 prices began to rise because of low inventory (just like today) only to fall back down during the first half of 2011.
Market Data: Quick reminder, we have added Paradise Valley, Cave Creek and Fountain Hills to our website. Click here to view THE RAW DATA on those cities.
Paradise Valley/Cave Creek/Fountain Hills
- Annual Appreciation: 7.9%, 3.1%, -3.7%
- Recent Appreciation Trend: 6.8%, 7.1%, 8.1%
- Caution, data from smaller cities varies greatly because of the limited number of transactions.
- Annual Appreciation: 15.3%, 31.2%
- Recent Appreciation Trend: 7.2%, 14.9%
- Annual Appreciation: 22.9%, 22.4%, 18.0%
- Recent Appreciation Trend: 12.2%, 12.7%, 9.0%
Overall Market Data (Data from Maricopa, Pinal and Yavapai County)
- Annual Appreciation: 23.5% (Compared to value of July 2011)
- Recent Appreciation Trend: 12.5% (Rate of Change)
- Annual Sales: -0.9%
- Active Listings: 28.9% (Change in Inventory Rate.)
- Average Days On Market: 126 days
- Months Of Supply: 2.6
Considering Short Sale instead of Foreclosure:
Short sales are significantly better for your long term credit, allowing you to purchase another home in 2 years or in some cases right away. This is not the case after a foreclosure. The term, short sale, means you are selling your home for less than what you owe. The process usually takes 3 months. Click here to take a SHORT QUIZ and see if you are a good candidate for a short sale.
Please feel free to reach out with your real estate needs and questions,
Toma Partners, CEO